The newly released Oregonian poll has the presidential race at 47-41 for Obama, with 8% undecided and a 5% margin of error. Says the paper:Really! I can't imagine Oregon going for Romney, but in my experience the undecided vote generally goes heavily for a challenger. Obama's got all the votes he's going to get. With a good push, and a good GOTV effort, Oregon might turn red. A concerted Republican effort and the idea that Obama is going to win might be enough to convince Oregon Democrats to stay home.
I don't think that this race is as close as people think it is. VodkaPundit describes it as an undertow election. You can't see it on the surface, but the current underneath is a killer.
A wave election is something you can generally see coming, rising above the surface, crushing everything in its path. But an undertow election isn’t something you can see. It pulls underneath the surface with sudden strength, sucking away a base of support thought to be reliable, the ground evaporating underneath you as you claw to stay afloat. It’s maddening for campaigns when voters you had counted as baked in to your models decide they have something better to do on Tuesday. Bush experienced this because of a news story. The Obama campaign may be experiencing something similar now – which may explain their strategic flailing over the past few weeks.That's what I'm seeing, and I'm not a pollster, nor am I a consultant. I've just got a feeling that Obama is lost in the weeds and is about to get his feelings hurt on Tuesday.