Covid Amnesty? Not Likely

 Termite linked to some articles in a comment, below.  There are some people who are pushing for an amnesty on the public health officials and elected leaders who led us through the most severe degradation of civil liberties since Reconstruction.

Not likely.  Elected leaders are supposed to know the Constitution, and I see no where in the Bill of Rights that allows a suspension of civil liberties during a virus.  Yes, it is true that thousand died, but it is also true that lives and businesses were wrecked, schools were shuttered to the detriment of students,   It's also true that the elites refused to play by the same rules that they decreed for their citizens.

As a Christian, I routinely ask for Grace, and I tend to forgive those that trespass against me.  But, that doesn't mean that I forget the indignity that was foisted upon me. It's bad enough that the execrable judgement of the so-called "public health officials" has led many of us to never trust them again in any regard.  They squandered the public trust.  They were so completely wrong about Covid that no one listens to them.

There are questions about the pandemic.  Not the least of which is the origin of the virus itself, and whether the CCP pushed it on the world as a form of biological warfare.  We also need to know who in the United States was complicit in furthering the aims of the CCP.

Pastor Spell Wins

 Pastor Spell has won his case before the Louisiana Supreme Court.  He appealed two years ago after he was arrested for violating the Governor's emergency covid order requiring churches to all-but-shot-down.  As the case worked its way through the appellate system, it finally made its way to the Louisiana Supreme Court, where the pastor's rights were upheld.  In a 5-2 ruling, the Court said, in part:

A public health emergency does not relegate the First Amendment to a proposition or allow violations thereof to be judged on a sliding scale of constitutionality. The infringement of the fundamental right of the free exercise of religion, whether in times of crisis or calm, must always be strictly scrutinized by our courts.”

The Court's formal ruling can be read here.

This ruling is just one of several that hammers a spike into the Governor's public health emergency orders.  I understand that the pastor is going to start suing the agencies that tried to shut him down. They cannot hide behind the Governor's public health order as it has been ruled unconstitutional.  I wish him all the luck.  Our individual rights are too important.

Louisiana Covid Numbers

 Yahoo News is reporting that Louisiana's Covid numbers from the 5th surge have fallen below the peak of prior surges.

Louisiana’s omicron variant-fueled surge of COVID-19 cases has finally fallen to levels below the peaks of the state’s four prior waves as the virus’ spread continues to slow this spring.

A review of the New York Ties Covid-tracker supports this claim.

 That is good news.  And, if a statistician looks at each of those surges, they see something that is very familiar.  Each of those surges, when soothed, records either a Standard distributing, or a Poisson distribution.  Those are very standard curves, which indicate that nothing we did affected the trajectory much, if at all.  Those are standard curves.

In the years coming, historians will describe our governments response t Covid as a heinous moral crime.

The "Noble" Lie

 The noble lie is not noble, it's just a lie.

NY health official admits the released that scary alert about increasing pediatric hospitalizations not because there's an actual issue, but just to "motivate" parents to vaccinate kids.  https://twitter.com/KeepSchoolOpen/status/1475893919422496775?t=IeEjEpZcEAe_jpZBaCkjLg&s=19

Fauci started this crap by making up shit abut herd immunity.  When you start fudging numbers to motivate people, you start destroying public trust. At this point, I don't trust any public health official with numbers.  Like a high-school sophomore, they need to show their work, with footnotes.

Fauci Backtracks

 As he always dos.

On ABC’s This Week program on Sunday morning, Dr. Fauci said he’d be supportive of a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for domestic air travel. Neither Joe Biden nor Pete Buttigieg, the Secretary of Transportation, favor such a move. At least not yet. Fauci isn’t really so firm in his support, as it turns out. Just after he said he would support a mandate, he said one really isn’t necessary, given the mitigation measures already in place.

He would support it, but it's not necessary.

He's inconsistent on everything.  For example, this exchange where he talks about people coming into the country.  If you come in on an airplane you need to be tested, but if you walk across the southern border, not so much.  Really, doc?

Tony Fauci is a hack who should have been run out of government a decade ago.  

The Chinese Sneeze

 Like many of you, I a watching with some small interest the various depictions of the politically=minted Omicron variant of the Wu-flu.  I say politically, because they skipped right over the Greek letter Xi in naming it.

It seems that this variant was first identified in South Africa, a country known for breakthroughs in medical science.  Educated readers may recall that the resounded scientist and physician  Christiaan Barnard conducted he first heart transplant in South Africa.  South Africa ain't no slouch, medically.

The doc from South Africa who identified this variant says that it's not much to worry about.

“Dr. Angelique Coetzee, the South African doctor who discovered the omicron variant of COVID the Chinese sneeze, released a statement telling the world to hit the Bat-chute on the manic panic response to the new variant. Especially England.”

Here in the United States, our homegrown bureaucrat and panic-merchant is telling us that the first identified patient is in San Francisco and recently returned from South Africa.  That patient was fully vaccinated, has a mild case and is recovering nicely.  His advice on this matter?  Get vaccinated.

So, who to believe?  On the one hand, we have a highly respected physician who is actually studying the virus and treating patients.  On the other hand, we have a career bureaucrat who loves Sunday morning talk shows.  For myself, the choice is clear.

Covid By County - US Map

 Interesting map of covid infection over at the CDC.  This is their map, not mine.  I wonder what Ron Desantis did differently from all the other governors.  Oh, wait, I remember.  He protected his most vulnerable citizens, then let the rest of the state be free.

Interesting map, isn't it.  It is an official CDC graphic.  I wish Louisiana were as blue as Florida on this map, but we have a leftist, Democrat governor who follows Fauci and the CDC right down to the jot and tittle.

The Nu Variant

 The news is everywhere this morning.  There is a new variant of Covid on the screen.  The "Nu" variant, maned after the 13th letter of the Greek alphabet.

If nothing else, I'm impressed with the timing.  Coming on the heels of Thanksgiving, on the cusp of the Christmas season, they have to come up with something that will harsh the season.

If it hadn't been for Fauci dragging the goal posts up and down the field, we'd have been done with Covid over a year ago.  In truth, many of us were done with it a year ago.

Excuse me if I simply  yawn form boredom.  They are becoming entirely too predictable.  Of course there is a new variant.  How else would they keep a significant portion of the population scared?

US 5th Circuit Upholds Vaccine Mandate Stay

 It seems that the US 5th Circuit has upheld stay against the OSHA vaccine mandate.

In part, from the ruling.

The Constitution vests a limited legislative power in Congress. For more than a century, Congress has routinely used this power to delegate policymaking specifics and technical details to executive agencies charged with effectuating policy principles Congress lays down. In the mine run of cases—a  transportation department regulating trucking on an interstate highway, or an aviation agency regulating an airplane lavatory—this is generally well and good. But health agencies do not make housing policy, and occupational safety administrations do not make health policy. Cf. Ala. Ass’n of Realtors, 141 S. Ct. at 2488–90. In seeking to do so here, OSHA runs afoul of the statute from which it draws its power and, likely, violates the constitutional structure that safeguards our collective liberty

Oh, Snap.  Biden's vaccine mandate is in bi trouble. 

Thanks, Termite.

The Airlines

 The airlines have been all over the news today, especially Southwest Airlines, which seems to be leading the pack.  Airline companies are huge, complex companies that deal in routing theory, or as we called them in business school, transportation models.  If an airplane leaves from A ad goes to B, then back to A, it needs to make money both ways.  If a pilot doesn't sow up, or if maintenance problems crop up, then eventually you won't have assets i place where you need them when you need them.

It seems that crews are in turmoil over the vaccine mandate, and they're making their turmoil known.  I'm hearing that the FAA controllers are in turmoil as well.  You don't move aircraft without pilots, crews, and controllers.  Some people are saying that it is about freedom.

One pilot put out a video, and I'll try to link it here.

There seems to be a lot of John Galt in the industry, and it's making its weight be felt.  You don't hire pilots, or mechanics, or crews in one day.  Or truck drivers, or nurses, or lots of people who are very important to the economy.  Perhaps personal freedom is starting to assert itself.

Inconsistencies

 Does anyone see an inconsistency here?

These are supposed to be the "smart people".  Yet, they can't see the inconsistencies in their day-to-day lives.  It is amazing.  

Exit question:  If YOU are fully vaccinated, how does my vax status affect you in any way?

Empty Beds

 There is an axiom in the hotel business that an empty bed is a revenue opportunity that is lost forever.  To have a successful hotel, you need guests in the beds.  It's a fairly simple concept.

Hospitals are the same.  Empty beds mean a lost revenue opportunity.  While that may seem crass and profit-driven, it's the truth.  As much as I admire physicians and nurses, along with all the support staff  that make a hospital run, it is simple economics that if your hospital is empty, you don't need all those doctors, nurses and support staff on the payroll.  Empty beds is a lost revenue opportunity.

During the current Covid pandemic, we have come to depend on Covid hospitalizations as a valuable metric of success.  As hospitalizations rise and fall, we measure success.  However, an article in The Atlantic suggests that this metric is not as reliable as we might like it to be.

Researchers have tried to get at similar questions before. For two separate studies published in May, doctors in California read through several hundred charts of pediatric patients, one by one, to figure out why, exactly, each COVID-positive child had been admitted to the hospital. Did they need treatment for COVID, or was there some other reason for admission, like cancer treatment or a psychiatric episode, and the COVID diagnosis was merely incidental? According to the researchers, 40 to 45 percent of the hospitalizations that they examined were for patients in the latter group.

So, a patient goes to the hospital for a routine colonoscopy, and during the intake, is found to be Covid positive.  That's good to know, but that patient suddenly becomes a Covid patient.  The patient is later admitted.  So, the question becomes: was the patient admitted for colon, or Covid?  That is a legitimate question.

Our big regional hospital here shows Covid hospitalizations every day, with a count of vaccinated and un-vaccinated.  They give no other breakdown on the numbers,and as a regional medical center, they are known to accept patients from other hospitals.  I've also noticed that their numbers tend to hover between 50-70 Covid patients.

I'm not pointing fingers here, and certainly not ascribing any nefarious intent.  I'm simply highlighting what other folks have noticed.

Local Covid Numbers

 Our local hospital is reporting another drop in Covid hospitalizations for the third day in a row.  I'm cautiously optimistic that this is a trend.

Cautious optimism, but it is a weekend.  We'll see what the numbers do this coming week.

Saturday Update

 Great club shoot this morning.  We were just practicing, but we had three (3) new shooters, so we spent a lot of time with safety, and teaching them how to shoot a single action revolver.

After the shoot, I took Belle to lunch, and we had a nice lunch at a little Cajun cafe near the house.  Quite pleasant.

Checking on the Covid numbers at the local hospital, we find:

That is better than yesterday.  It ain't good yet, but it is better.

Looking at the tropics, we see that Fred had downgraded and shifted significantly to the west.  

And, now I see something called Grace, tracking in about the same path as Fred.  The tropics are heating up.

This may be a long hurricane season.

Daily Update

 We are watching the tropics this morning.  That disturbance down in the ocean has ginned up into a tropical storm, named Fred.   It is still early to assess its track but while many models are predicting it will leave us alone, one outlier puts it right across my acre.

Still, most models predict it will be a bigger problem for Florida than for Louisiana.  Below, is NOAA's warning cones

So, we will be keeping a weather eye on this thing, and checking our own prep plan.

Turning our eye to the daily Covid numbers, we find that our local hospital is up one since yesterday.

That's sobering news, but it appears that the local numbers have ben hovering around the 60 count since the weekend.  Hopefully that means we've entered a plateau.

Covid Updae

 It seems this virus is still having its way with us, despite the best efforts of government to restrict freedom.  Let's look at the numbers today.

One of the head magillas from RRMC was on a local talk radio show this mining, and said that beds were not a problem, but staffing is the biggest issue facing then today.

Monday is laundry day at PawPaw's house, and after I do one more load, I have to make a grocery list and take care of some shopping.  I'm trying to decide what to cook for church tonight, so I can make the proper list.

Covid UPdate

 After mowing the yard, I'm cooling off, clicking on some links, and I see that Rapides Regional Medical Center has been updating their Covid numbers this weekend.  Kudos to them.

First, the numbers from Saturday.

That is down a few from Friday, but then I see today's numbers.

Well, crap.  The numbers jumped again today.  Hopefully, these folks are doing well.  At the church lately, we've been praying for covid patients quite a bit.  It seems that regardless of the best eforts of our medical people, this thing is going to have its way with us.

UPDATE TO ADD:  Some pundits are starting to notice that a severe uptick in the Covid numbers coincides neatly with the Biden policy of allowing unrestricted migration, and transporting Covid-infected illegal aliens into American cities.

I note that just before our surge in Louisiana began, there were reports of busloads of illegals being dropped off in Shreveport, Monroe, Baton Rouge, and Lafayette.  All of these cities are Louisiana metro areas and all have seen a corresponding spike in Covid.  My hometown, Alexandria, has an ICE facility out near the airport where illegals are processed through.

Correlation does not equal causation, but it seems that if we are trying to cure Covid, we might not want to transport Covid-infected people into places that are already fighting it.  Which is everywhere in the US.  I'm just saying.

Economic Theory: The Case Against Mandates

 It's economic theory, but there are costs associated  with everything.  What we choose or what we don't have costs associated with it.  Economists assume that government tries to makes rational decisions under conditions of uncertainty.

Ryan Bourne makes the argument that current mask mandates impose unacceptable costs today that they did not impose last year.

As soon as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that vaccinated individuals wear masks indoors in areas of “substantial or high” COVID-19 transmission, you knew the re-introduction of mask mandates in liberal cities was inevitable.

It is worth the read, and the argument is complicated, as most economic theory is.  But basically, now that the vaccines are widely available at very low cost, then those to remain un-vaccinated have made a rational decision and that the costs associated with that should not be borne by the general pubic at large.

You may not like economics, but economics reveals human behavior in many ways that other sciences don't.

Covid Update

 Rapides Regional Medical Center has updated their covid stats, and this is what we learn today.

The count today is up by seven, and the vast majority of those are un-vaccinated souls.  I don't know if they will continue to update over the weekend, but this is where we stand on Friday.

PawPaw is going to take it easy this afternoon.  I am going to help the church conduct a rodeo this weekend, with a show tonight and two shows tomorrow.  I'll be the guy running the burger griddle.  Y'all have a great weekend, and I'll catch up after the rodeo.

Housekeeping

 No, really, mop and broom housekeeping this morning.  With a wife who works, and refuses to retire, the housework falls on me.  I'm not complaining, just saying that is how things work.

Between chores, I do internet surfing, and find that the numbers from Rapies Regional are the same as yesterday.

Still no word our of our other large hospital, but this provides a baseline.  Good on RRMC!

After that, I go over to The Dead Pelican, a Louisiana  news aggregation site, and learn that the demand in Louisiana for the Covid vaccine has quadrupled.

People in Louisiana - one of the least vaccinated states in the US - are suddenly clamoring for shots as the Delta variant rages there.

That is good news, I reckon.   I see both sides of the argument, and of course, Belle is a Registered Nurse and a big proponent of the vaccine..  That aside, I recommend that everyone consult with their physician and make the decision that is best for you.   

The dryer just buzzed at me, so it's time to gt back to the distaff chores.