Saturday, January 02, 2016

Crime In Louisiana

I've been a cop for a long time, so crime stats interest me.  Luckily, most states keep crime stats as part of the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system.  Like most charts, graphs and spreadsheets, to understand them, you have to understand what they're counting, but after just a little while, we start to see things.

Every state keeps these records, and for example, Louisiana reports ours here. In Louisiana's case, the last year for which full stats were reported is 2013, but we can glean trends and make assumptions based on the numbers reported.  I'm sure that in whatever state you're in, you can find similar statistics. Google is your friend in these matters.

Other sources are available for more current numbers.  For example, keeps track of the murders in New Orleans, and they're reporting that New Orleans had an up-tick of murders this year.

It is instructive to look at the numbers and try to make sense of them, but what strikes me is that the number of murders in one small geographic area, New Orleans, is half the number of murders reported in the whole state.  In the last year counted, Louisiana reported 324 cases of murder or non-negligent manslaughter, but if you peel New Orleans out, the number drops to 164 cases for the rest of the state.  That's instructive.

The numbers lend themselves to some analysis, and I'm sure that the criminologists, sociologists and anthropologists are hard at work looking at trends, but the simple fact of the matter is that if you're worried about murder, staying out of New Orleans drops your chance of being murdered by half.

Looking around the country, a trend starts to emerge. Like Chicago, for instance, which already reports three murders to start the year.  Or the San Francisco Bay area.  Or New York City. Then look a the dominant political party in those locations, and a sharper focus starts to emerge.

***UPDATE*** Great minds think alike.  Surfing around, I found this over at Professor Reynold's site. 
Frankly, the Democratic Party must somehow benefit from ghetto violence because every city they run seems to have a Third World-level homicide rate

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