Monday, October 25, 2010

Super LaNina

Weather being what it is, it's subject to lots of variables and the weather-weenies are doing the best they can to figure out what's going to happen in three days.  Still, some of those folks look to long-term trends and try to figure out what they mean.  Some of them have come to depend on a patch of water off the coast of California.  They're saying that we might be in for a cold winter. 

La Nina is the lesser-known colder sister of El Nino. La Nina chills the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and in turn cools the entire planet for one to two years or more. This chilling has the potential to bring bone-numbing cold to many parts of the world for this and the following winter. As a result, world energy demand may spike in the next one to two years as much colder weather hits many of the major industrial nations.

This La Nina appears to be special, at least so far. It is well on its way to being the strongest of these events since the super La Nina of 1955-1956. During that powerful La Nina that lasted two years, the global average temperature fell nearly one degree Fahrenheit from 1953 to 1956.

I don't know what the wooly caterpillars are saying about the winter, but Milady is thinking we're going to have a mild winter.  It's been hot for so long and dry that she expects this winter to be milder than normal.

The Farmer's Almanac says we're going to have a hard winter here in the Deep South. 

Winter will be colder than normal, with precipitation below normal in the north and above normal in the south. Most days in January will be cold, with other cold periods in early to mid-February. Snowfall will generally be above normal, with the snowiest periods in mid- and late January and mid-February.
What kind of winter do you think we'll have?

3 comments:

Termite said...

I spent a winter at Fort Knox, where I learned some interesting things about weather. Fog really can freeze in trees. There can be ice and frozen mud along gravel roads, yet dust in the air, because of trucks and tanks crushing the frozen mud, and the ice sublimating out, leaving dust behind. It was quite the experience for a 19yr old from the deep South.

Cenla winters are nothing, by comparison.

Hobie said...

I saw a white woolly bear caterpillar, that's definitive proof of a mild winter, right? ;-)

Rivrdog said...

Here in the Pacific Northwest, LaNina has already started. The first series of winter storms has blown through in the past 3 days, with today left as one more bad day. These storms featured plenty of rain (nearest station to me, Troutdale, set a one-day rainfall record for the month) and heavy mountain snow, this morning down to 2500 feet or so, and this LaNina is just getting started.

The worst La Nina on record was in 1950, at which time both the Columbia and Willamette Rivers froze bank-to-bank (hasn't happened since) and there was a permanent snow-pack at sea level from Christmas to almost Easter (also hasn't happened again).

But, La Nina winters sometimes come without the Arctic Air, also. That happens in 40% of them. In those winters, the biggest worry is excessive rainfall and constant flooding. The snow stays in the mountain elevations.

The other LaNina factor is bad coastal storms. We have a winter version of hurricanes here, called Extra-Tropical Cyclones. The one that just brushed the Pacific Northwest coast had the central pressure of a Cat 3 hurricane, and it has generated waves at sea of over 40 feet, with 25'+ waves hitting Oregon's shoreline.

Yep, La Nina can be bad, but it also means that the colder water is VERY good for salmon, so the fishing will be great for a few years afterward.

It IS time for me to hump down to the truck supply place and buy some tire chains for the giant Jeep (M35A2 Deuce and a Half) of mine sitting out back, just waiting for the REALLY bad shit to hit, when I will be the only one on the road.