On Polling

When I was in Business School, several courses were designed to teach us statistics and most of those convinced me, in market polling and customer surveys, that is is extremely difficult to get good poll results when working with the general public.  I tend to distrust poll numbers, especially in political races simply because people will lie to you.  It's one thing to measure widgets coming off an assembly line and get an idea about your production standards.  It's another thing entirely to measure people, and any pollster can inject bias into a sample, even when they're trying very, very hard to be fair.  It's part and parcel of the business.

Polls tend to favor incumbents.  I put the level of confidence of all political polls at 90%, which in my mind tells me that they're skewed 10% in one direction or another.  Nowadays the pollsters call that the margin of error.  I've studied the math behind human polling and I'm here to tell you that no pollster can tell you within 10% what the public is thinking.  Don't let them bullshit you.  If you're paying attention to the current discussion among news sites, you'll see some question about the level of confidence we should have in polls. I"m not alone here.

Last night at the family gathering, we were talking politics and I predicted that Mitt Romney would win with about 55% of the popular vote.  Lots of the folks present thought that I was wrong, but I'll persist in my prognostication, for the following reasons.

The economy sucks.  Incumbents don't do well in a bad economy.  Anyone who has bought gasoline or groceries with their dollars lately knows that those prices have risen dramatically.  The middle class, and the lower end of the middle class is hurting right now.  They're stretched pretty thin.

For those of us who pay attention to foreign policy, the President's foreign policy is in tatters, to the point where knowledgeable pundits are saying that the President actively lied about the Benghazi debacle.

At this point in the 1980 race, President Carter was ahead of Ronald Reagan by 4 points.  In late October, Carter was ahead by 7 points.  When the polls closed at the end of the voting, Reagan had won by 4 points and a huge electoral college victory.

President Obama knows this, and his campaign shows it.  The economy is struggling, foreign policy is in tatters, and the polling shows a close race.  It's not as close as many people think.  The Democrats may have a 2-point numbers advantage, but more than that number are simply going to stay home on election day.  The only poll that matters is the first Tuesday of  November, and I predict that Romney is going to win handily, with at least 5 points and a huge decisive electoral victory.

UPDATE:  As I was posting this, Instapundit linked to this report on PJ Tattler that only 9% of people today are cooperating with political pollsters.  That is a tiny number and illustrates the difficulty of conducting political polls.  I stand by my prediction.  Romney is going to win by at least five points.

East St. Louis

East St. Louis.  A little town on the banks of the Mississippi, just across from that other St. Louis, seems to be experiencing some problems.  Gang problems, juvenile problems, parenting problems.  Government problems.  The mayor of the city, whom I'm virtually certain is a Democrat, is announcing some extreme measures to gain control of his city.

**Minors are to be off the streets at ten o’clock on both weeknights and weekend nights.
**Minors on the street during school hours will be arrested on sight.
**Police will also perform I.D. checks on street corners and conduct gun searches, and Parks says he won’t hesitate to call in the National Guard if the spike in violence continues.
East St. Louis Mayor Alvin Parks announcing crackdown on youth violence “The loiterers will be arrested, not warned, but arrested. Those who are hanging out at 11th and Bond, 15th and Lynch, 38th and Waverly, wherever you happen to be, if you are loitering, you will be arrested.”

Sounds extreme, doesn't it? Yeah, I thought so too, but then we get to the most racist part of the whole order. ID cards.

“Vehicles that are moving will be stopped and searched for guns, weapons, drugs, and open alcohol and any other violations that are taking place,” Parks later told KMOX’s Mark Reardon. “People who are walking, people who are bicycling, can be stopped and searched for the same and, when it comes to state IDs, we’re going to be confirming that state IDs are in place for everyone involved.”

Wait a minute! ID Cards? But those are racist. They suppress the minority vote. And how are all those Democrats going to vote if they're locked up in the local jail? Without the ID Cards you won't even be able to walk down the street, much less pull a voting lever.

Just so you don't think that the Mayor of East St. Louis is an old Bull Conner guy, a picture would help.

I notice that he's wearing a blue suit and a red tie.  If I were the cops, I'd ask for his ID, then lock him up for wearing gang colors.  The best quote today is from the Gun Counter forum.

State ID cards are those magical objects that this mayor decrees that everyone MUST have just for the privilege of walking around ....but if certain people are asked to show these IDs for voting they transform into symbols of racist voter suppression. Or something.

Welcome to the Police State. Of course, in Illinois the Constitution hasn't been in effect for several decades.

Sunday Morning Dawg

We had a family gathering at the house last night, and the dog was getting scratching wherever he could find it.

That's my baby sister scratching the dog, and my mother to to her right.  It's good being a dog during our family feeds.

More Family Photos

I've got a grandson who looks remarkably like this photo.

Yeah, that's PawPaw hisself, taken in January 1955.

PawPaw is working a football game tonite at the high school.  It's also a full moon.  Cops and nurses know what a full moon brings.  I've got the radio on the charger, I'm hydrating, and I'm going to the lease tomorrow morning.

Old Photographs

My mother came by today with some old photos and I've scanned a couple in for the general edification of the family.

That's my grandfather, Edward L. Dezendorf Jr. and family member John James Joseph Masson, Jr. working on an old Ford.  Taken at the Kelly Street house, about 1952.  JJJ Masson is where the James comes from in our family line.

Family members should feel free to use this photo in any manner they see fit.  You can click on it to make it bigger.

Bentley Back In Racing

Bentley's coming back in racing, with what looks like one hell of a car.

That looks like a sweet ride.

The production-spec Bentley Continental GT Speed has a claimed 4.0-second 0-60 mph top speed and 205-mph top speed. Mated to an eight-speed automatic transmission, the car’s 6.0-liter W-12 engine produces 616 hp and 590 lb-ft of torque.

There's no Bentley dealership locally, so I'll never know if they'd take an eleven-year-old F150 in trade.

The Daily Mohammed

Here's one that should drive the Mohammedans crazy. Mohammed after conversion to Judaism.

I love it. Courtesy of iranpoliticsclub.net.

Kiptonized

Out of the annals of weird politics and Louisiana campaigns, comes this heartwarming tale from Baker, LA.

A lifelong Baker resident claims she was permanently disabled after watching a YouTube video released by mayor-president candidate Mike Walker’s campaign.

She says that she's been Kiptonized by the ad, in which Mayor Kip Holden claims that crime isn't a problem.

“I saw that video on the YouTubes,” Lacey said. “And when the swirly thing came on and the watch went back and forth, I got really sleepy, like when I get the itis after eating a bunch of ribs.”

Yeah, that swirly thing has entranced her.

She tells the paper that she can't walk to work any more and she's deserving of disability.

The 48-year-old grandmother said she can no longer perform her duties as a high school cafeteria worker after viewing the ad and has since filed for full disability with the state. “I can’t do nothing anymore, baby,” Lacey explained. “I been Kipnotized. All I wanna do now is drink Budweiser and hang out with white women.”

Heh! Only in Louisiana. You can watch the campaign ad here.

Crime Scene?

It seems that there is some animosity between the media and the State Department.  CNN used portions of slain ambassador Stephens diary to show that he knew that he was in danger when he went to Bengazi.  What is truly telling is some of the wording that State Department Phillip Reines used in describing the incident.

• On material, I'll let Toria reiterate, but the answer is no. Though you might want to ask CNN if they took anything else from the crime scene that they haven't yet told anyone about.

Crime Scene? Crime Scene?  I've worked a lot of crime scenes, and I'm not even certified as a crime scene investigator, but I'm certainly competent to do so.  In a crime scene, you don't let anyone, not anyone in who is not actively engaged in protecting and preserving evidence.  So, my question to Phillipe Reines would be; "How did CNN get into the crime scene before all of the evidence was preserved?"  How is it that the State Department is so incompetent that they can't preserve a simple crime scene?

Let's forget for a moment that this wasn't a crime scene.  This was the site of a vicious act of war against the United States.  This is an act of war about which our own government has been lying for the past fourteen days.  This was not a simple protest.  The militants that successfully pressed this attack were armed with rifles, mortars and RPGs against a consulate of the United States.

So, I would ask Phillipe Reines, if this were a crime scene, why was it not preserved?  If it was not a crime scene, why are you lying about it?  The answer is stark and uncompromising.  We've got some worthless bastards running our State Department.

Hat tip to Betsy's Page.

Crybaby Mohammed

I see that the religion of the perpetually aggrieved continues to make noise about their pedophile prophet.  They were at the UN today asking that the body consider sanctions on blasphemy in light of the recent assaults on Mohammed.  Seriously.

As the U.N. General Assembly convenes this week in New York, several leaders of mostly Muslim nations are suggesting that the world body consider sanctions on blasphemy, amid widespread protests against an amateur movie that denigrates Islam’s Prophet Muhammad.

As I understand their complaint, any depiction of the Pedophile Prophet is blasphemous, so in light of their sensitivities, I offer Crybaby Mohammed.

What they have to understand is that we revile pedophiles, we revere women, and we will grind your sacred cows into hamburger. I've heard since 9/11 that the majority of Mohammedans are gracious, moderate, kind people.  In that case, it doesn't seem like a stretch for them to tell the radicals to "get over it".

Just for the record, that idiot preacher in Florida, whatsisname?  I deplore his tactics as well, but it's really time for the moderate Mohammedans to assert themselves before their religion's perpetual whining becomes a buzz-kill for everyone.

More Mohammed Cartoons

No review of Mohammed cartoons would be complete without a viewing of Kurt Westergaard's drawing of Mohammed with a bomb on his head.   Done in stark black and white, the unsmiling prophet is poised to detonate, a metaphor for his perpetually aggrieved followers.

This cartoon, more than any, dramatizes for me the Mohammadan faith.  It's stark and deadly, capable of more damage to the Prophet than to some one at a safe distance.  The lesson is simple, keep a safe distance from the Pedophile Prophet and his followers.

Sunday Morning Dawg

We've done the turkey shoot and made lots of money for our church mission fund.  The guns are oiled and put away, the church is cleaned up, all the ice chests have been emptied.  It was a great Saturday, but today we're relaxing at home.

The dog on his tiles near the fireplace, PawPaw on his recliner.  It's great to have a lazy day.

The Turkey Shoot

We finished the Turkey Shoot at the church today, and PawPaw never picked up a camera.  I was the rangemaster today and was preoccupied with such things as the Four Rules, making sure everyone was safe, and keeping the firing line moving.  However, some of the folks took pictures.

That's my grandson with the oversized muffs about to engage the target with his mother's .410 shotgun.  His dad is kneeling beside him coaching, and PawPaw is in the top corner, making sure that everything is safe.  Of the winners in the youth division, all three were PawPaw's grandsons and I feel pretty good about that.  In  the men's division, another grandson took a prize and in the women's division, my daughter-in-law took a prize with that same shotgun in the picture above.  The big winner in the women's division was a woman who hadn't picked up a shotgun in many years.  She shot her brother's Remington 1100 in .410 and she whacked the target pretty good.  Good enough to take home first prize, a big ole donated spiral cut ham.

Some of the shotguns leaning against a pine tree.  Many of those are family guns that we used as loaners for those folks who wanted to shoot, but didn't have a shotgun.  We had a very good time today, made a bunch of money for our Mission fund, and started what will probably be an annual tradition.

And, we got to shoot shotguns on the grounds of the church.  How cool is that?

The Mohammed Cartoon

I almost forgot about another Mohammed Cartoon I saw last week.  I've seen it before, but it resonates on how completely the Islamic world treats its women.  Here we see two Islamic women with only their eyes revealed.  The Prophet is revealed with his eyes covered.  That's a telling caricature of the Muslim faith.

You'll notice that the prophet is a gray-bearded man and that the women are fresh faced young ladies.  Actually, I'm not convinced that the ladies are old enough for the prophet, who much preferred his girls before they reached puberty.  He is without a doubt the most reviled pedophile in the world.

I was busy today, advancing the Christian faith, so I didn't have a chance to look for a Koran.  I'll be at an auction later today, so hopefully someone will be selling a box of books with a rat-eared paperback copy.  I need some scrap paper to test the penetration of shotshells and a Koran should do just fine.

Polls Tied

With Mitt Romney having what some are calling his worst week yet, it turns out that the polls look like a tie.  How is that possible?  Rasmussen has the race as a complete tie and Gallup shows the President up two points in swing states.  What is going on?  It's simple.

Buyer's remorse.  Lots of folks who voted for an historical presidency are tired of having to defend the indefensible.  We've had an historic presidency, lets elect someone who knows what the hell he's doing, and that isn't Barack Obama.

I've seen predictions that predict that Romney will win with over 320 electoral votes, about the same percentage as President Obama's win over John McCain.  It's going to be a huge rejection of his policies and his administration.

We're going to beat him like a bass drum in just a few more weeks.  I'll make an additional prediction that he won't have the class to make a simple concession call.

Great Wealth

I've been privileged to know a few men of great wealth.  Small-town guys who you'd never know were wealthy.  As a general rule, they drove battered old pickup trucks and wore working-man clothes.  They got rich the old fashioned way, working hard, being shrewd in their business, and taking care of customers and employees.  They gave money away because it helped their goodwill and they had more money than they needed.  These guys turn problems into opportunities. One fellow would give land to employees, turning a working-class stiff into a more comfortable working-class stiff.  Another fellow would shower cash on an unsuspecting local charity, allowing them to do truly wonderful work.  Another guy might be in a diner for breakfast and pick up the tab for everyone in the place.  Another fellow had an employee who was basically homeless, so the guy bought a house, let the employee live in it, then sold it later when the employee got back on his feet.

When it all boils down to money, you have folks who realize that once their basic necessities are covered, and their comfort is assured, the best thing to do with money is to spread it around.  Personally.  Take care of the folks around you, do good works.  Each of the truly rich people that I have known later died after a long, prosperous life and  in the little communities where they lived they are regarded as patrons of the community for helping the little folks.  They were good people, deserving of the accolades of their neighbors and helping folks that may have never realized where the money came from for their churches, their community parks, their fund-drives.

I see that Mitt Romney has released his tax returns.  They show that for just last year along, the Romney family gave away more money than I'll probably ever earn.  He earned $13.6 million in 2011 and paid $1.9 million in taxes.  He gave away over $4 million, about a third of his income.  Additional records released show that over the past 20 years, the Romneys have paid their taxes every year, but more importantly, have given away over 13% of their income.

For me, personally, this changes everything.  Yesterday, I was not voting for Mitt Romney so much as I was voting against Barack Obama.  Now, knowing what I know, I'm voting for Mitt Romney.

Turkey Shoot

Tomorrow morning we're having a Turkey Shoot at Bethel United Methodist Church, 125 Bethel Road, Deville, LA  71328.  All funds to benefit our Mission Fund.

It's an old-style shotgun shoot, against a paper target with a small X in the center.  Closest shot to the X wins, and we've got prizes.  Donated by friends and loved ones, there are turkeys, hams, a game camera, skateboards, toys, candles, lots of things to give away.  Some of the ladies are holding a bake sale, and pulled-pork sandwiches will be sold.  There will be an old-fashioned lemonade stand, and I've heard that some folks may be selling baked goods.

The rules are simple.  Your shotgun, my shells.  Shoot at the target, the closest shot wins.  One shot for $3.00, two shots for $5.00.

The safety briefing starts promptly at 10:00 a.m. and the first round will go downrange shortly thereafter.  If you're in the neighborhood, drop by.  I'll have loaner shotguns available.

Muslim Outrage

If you've been paying attention at all, you know that the Muslims from around the world are well and truly pissed that some bozo in this country made a really laughable movie about their really laughable prophet.  I mean, c'mon.  The guy was a pedophile.  Today, in a civilized country, Mohammed would either be a politician or a death-row inmate, the two being closely aligned, especially among the followers of Islam.

But, the Muslims are burning down cinemas, killing ambassadors, rioting in the streets in at least four countries, and now this French newspaper wants to publish satirical cartoons about the pedophile prophet.  Muslim outrage is simply everywhere.

SO, Daniel Pipes at Fox comes up with an idea I like. Let's overload those pedophile followers with outrage.  Let's give them something to truly whine about.

Which prompts this question: What would happen if publishers and managers of major media outlets reached a consensus -- “Enough of this intimidation, we will publish the most famous Danish Muhammad cartoon every day, until the Islamists tire out and no longer riot”? What would happen if Korans were recurrently burned?

That's a great idea, and I'm all over it. If they want outrage, let's give them outrage.  Let's see:

That's a good one.  We could make him into a bobblehead.  I'll call him Dash Board Mohammed.

Maybe more tomorrow, I've got a lot to do this afternoon.  Big day at the Christian church tomorrow.  And remember, it's your Christian duty to piss off a Muslim every day.  Tomorrow, I'll see if I can find a Koran.

Taxes For Everyone

That seems to be the proposal of one candidate in Virginia.  Virginia Senate candidate Tim Kaine says that he would be comfortable with a proposal for a "minimum tax level for everyone".

Well, hell, Tim, so would I.  Let's get that 47% paying their fair share.  It's a great idea, and with bipartisan support, we might be able to get the deficit down to some rational level.  Like zero.
Instapundit has more thoughts, and he proposed them almost four years ago.

On a related note, I think we should rethink this business of having lots of Americans who don't pay income tax. As theTax Foundationcomments: "It is time for a serious public discussion of whether it is desirable to have so many Americans disconnected from the cost of government and what the consequences are of using the tax system as a vehicle for social policy."
Personally, I'd like to see everyone pay at least some income tax, and I'd like to see the amount of tax paid, by everyone, go up or down every year in tandem with federal spending. That would encourage fiscal discipline directly. It would also make it harder for politicians to promise everybody a free lunch, but hey -- why shouldn't they sacrifice something, too?

I concur. It sounds like an idea with broad bipartisan support. Let's get behind it.

The Renter's Tax

Yesterday when I was talking about the Coliseum, and I proposed a renter's tax, some of the commenters rightfully objected that renters do pay the property tax on a property.  Of course they do, I get it.  A property tax is eventually passed on to renters.  Y'all are missing my point entirely.

Property taxes are voted on by the general voting public, whether or not that voter owns property.  So, for renters that don't own property, those taxes are painless for them.  Sure, they wind up paying the tax as a part of their rental cost, but they don't see it.  What I'm proposing is entirely different.

When I propose a renter's tax, that would be a tax on rentals, either set at a percentage or a flat $10.00 per month rate that is added on top of the unit rental.  What used to be a $500.00 per month rent just became a $510.00 per month rent.  Even if the renter is on rental assistance, they will notice that the cost increased, and because many of them are subsidized at a set amount, the amount would probably come out of their pockets.  This would apply to all rentals, whether residential or commercial, and it would give "skin in the game" to folks who don't often worry about property taxes.

The idea could use some tweaking, but I think that it's a great untapped source of revenue, and it wouldn't hit single family dwelling owners.  We already pay enough property taxes.  Let the renters pick up the tab for some of the stuff that they want.  It would also encourage them to become property owners, which is good for America.