Weekend Update

Busy weekend, guys, but a good one  We started out yesterday doing chores around the house ad in the afternoon,  hosted a club shoot, our first monthly match of 2019.  We shoot for "Top Gum" points,and at the end of the year, we add up the points and give prizes.

L-R 1st,  Two Step Cooke - 2nd Squirrel Girl - 3rd Blue Eyed Belle

L-R - 1st, Cajun Greg - 2nd, Big Bill - 3rd Brother Fred

After the match, Belle decided that we needed oysters to finish the evening, so we took out some fresh oysters, broiled them in garlic butter topped with cheese and served them on crackers.  I complimented mine with a dram of Cooper's Craft whiskey.

This morning, the family is coming over for lunch, so we decided to make deer chili on a frosty January morning.

That's how we're rolling this weekennd.  Tomorrow, it's back to the grind, but in the meantime, we're living large.

TGIF

The political wold has gone batshit crazy over this Kavanaugh thing and the news has descended almost into parody.   Feinstein's office says that they've been receiving some really nasty phone calls and emails.  I bet so.  Others are calling for her censure, which makes a better case than just calling the office and giving her a good cussing.  Her handling of this entire matter has been despicable.

But, it is Friday, and we have a local football game.  So, I'll be in the stands tonight, cheering on the home team and talking politics with some of the other curmudgeons who attend.

Go Panthers!

The Weather

It looks like we're going to have a cold snap early next week to usher it 2018.  So be it.  I've lived through cold snaps before.  I recall the winter of '77, when I lived at Fort Knox, and the travails o being a young company commander whose troops lived in WWII barracks.  It was no joy at all.  The winters of '78 and '79 were no cake-walk either.

As I recall, the great bookieman of the weather scientists in those days was global cooling.  Yeah,, we were headed for a new Ice Age.  Seriously.



T hen, sometimes after Al Gore lost his bid for the presidency, he began a campaign to make himself filthy rich by proclaiming that the earth was getting warmer.  I've been openly skeptical  of that farce since it's beginning.  For a number of reasons, the glowball warmening crowd cried gloom-and-doom, but they didn't change their personal habits.  Like, for example, flying private jets to climate conferences.

Now, President Trump is expressing skepticism, and the DNC-MSM are losing their minds.

It's weather, people.  Get over it.  Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to put on my long johns and venture out to the shop.  I have more wiring to pull, and outlets to install.  It's cold out there.

The Weather

Mark D says in comments:

Those of us from the Northern states get quite a kick out of it when Southerners shut down over an amount of snow which wouldn't be a valid excuse to be late to work up here.
Then again, we freak out over 60 mph winds......

Heh!  I recall when I was a shavetail Lieutenant at Fort Knox.  Middle of January, 1977.  My platoon sergeant mentioned one afternoon that it looked like it might snow.  I had grown up in the Deep South and had only seen snow infrequently.  Sure enough, the next morning there was snow on the ground.  I called the company to see what's up?

The First Sergeant answered the phone.  "Get your ass in here, Lieutenant.   The Army is working today."

And, we worked every day that it snowed.  Shortly thereafter I bought a used Volkswagen Beetle off the PX parking lot for $500.00.  That thing was great in the snow and ice.  And, it was so cheap that I wasn't worried if I slid into something.  Two years later I sold it for the same $500.

So, yeah, Mark, we have different weather traumas in different areas of the country.  If it snows in the Deep South, almost everything shuts down until folks can catch their breath and take stock of the situation.

Drenched

The slow-moving disaster that is now tropical storm Harvey seems to have moved east overnight and is now camped on our doorstep.   The weather radar screen shot from earlier this morning.

Not much wind, just copious amounts of ran.  Most of the conversation centers on what is to come,   The general consensus  is that we're in for really crappy weather over the next several days

But, in the meantime, the government offices are operating, the schools are open and life goes on.  At this stage of the game, it's just rain, and we know how to deal with rain.

Hurricane Harvey

Sometime today while I wasn't looking, they upgraded Harvey to a hurricane.

They're still not sure where it's going, and some models put it going ashore in Texas then turning and re-entering the Gulf.  Wouldn't that be a kick in the ass?

But, they're pretty sure about the rainfall amounts, which look to be torrential.

That shows my acre getting somewhere between six and ten inches of rain.  My gunfighter buddies in the Houston area are hunkering down, prepping, and getting ready.

As mariners might say, we're going to keep a weather eye on this thing.

Edit to add:  They don't have a clue where this thing is going.

Geez!  Stay tuned for updates.

Here Comes Harvey!

The big news, weather-wise, is tropical storm Harvey.  It's supposed to come in tomorrow and dump copious amounts of rain on south Texas, but I've watched these things before and they tend to head northeast once they make landfall.  That puts us square in the path, here in central Louisiana.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting that we'll get six inches or so of rainfall, with the associated wind.  The forecast should firm up today and tomorrow, but it looks like we are in for a weather event.

This weekend might be a good time to hunker down.

Weekend Weather

Like many of you, I'm a weather watcher.  It's been my experience that as good as the weather-weenies are at forecasting, they simply can't start to firm up the forecast until about three days out.  There is too much of the butterfly effect, and the weather is one of those things that is almost impossible to predict with any degree of confidence past about four days.

I'm watching the weather for this weekend, because we've planned a rather large outdoor event.    And, I'm watching the weather.  When I want a quick-and-dirty idea, I click on Accuweather.  And, there is the forecast this weekend for Natchitoches, LA.

That doesn't look good for Saturday  There is a chance of a thunderstorm.  But, chances are like probabilities, and further data is needed.  So, I then click over to Weather Underground.  Here's that three-day prognostication.

That gives me a little better idea, and that blue area on the bottom of the map is the chance of rain.  And, if I click on that area of the map, I get an expanded view that looks like this.

That's Saturday, in Natchitoches, LA.  The rain chance is still there, but it never gets over 50%, although it approaches hat magic number.  Is it going to rain on our parade?  Heck, I don't know, but neither do the weather forecasters.  My idea, based on my experience with weather in central Louisiana is that there are probably going to be pop-up showers across the area.  Local events that might rain on one acre and leave the next pasture bone-dry.

I am cautiously optimistic at this time that the weather will cooperate.  All indications ar that Saturday will have a  less-than-half chance of rain, as part of a weak front passing by, and that Sunday will dawn-off clear and cool.

Tropical Depression 9

I see this morning that the National Hurricane Center has changed the name of that storm we've been watching.  It's now Tropical Depression 9.  The current models indicate that it is going to get into the Gulf of Mexico, then turn right (toward the northeast) and head toward Florida.  The static map for this morning is here.

Again, models are models, and if anyone tells you for certain that they know what this storm (or any other) will do three days out, they're lying to you.

We'll continue to keep a weather eye on this thing, and update our plans as necessary.

Inundation

We had planned, this weekend, to travel to Silsbee, TX to shoot with the Big Thicket Bushwackers, a CFDA group that my cousin honchos.  Unfortunately, rising flood waters got them too.  There's a creek behind the range and the water rose up to take the range.  Not just muddy and nasty, but so completely that they needed boats to try and save the electronics and other valuables.

Here's my buddy Mudcat, standing in front of the range shack.

It doesn't appear that the water is inside the range shack, yet.  I've lived through backwater floods and I know that the water doesn't stop rising as soon as the rainfall is over.  I'm not sure how the waters work in East Texas, but here in Louisiana, the water might rise for another two or three days.

That shoot is obviously cancelled, so I talked to our club marshal about our home range.  He's concerned that the muddy road going into our home range might be impassable and that perhaps we should let the ground dry for a while before we try to get in there.  That's prudent.

Both Louisiana and East Texas has taken abig hit this weekend.  We'll spend the weekend trying to dry out and get ready to hit it hard on Monday.

The big laugh this morning was that the LDWF has warned people that flooding is imminent in the Saline/Larto lake complex.

“All property owners in flood-prone areas are encouraged to make preparations for this flooding immediately. Water levels are expected to rise quickly over the next several days,” an LDWF news release said.

The water level is rising and is projected to reach a level of 50.0 feet Mean Sea Level next Friday, March 18.

No doubt the water will continue to rise in Saline/Larto for the next several days.  All that water coming out of the creeks, streams, ad bayous has to go somewhere.  Just because the rain has quit doesn't mean that the flooding is over.

TGIF

Thank God It's Friday, the end of the workaday week.  Saturday is the club shoot, and Sunday we're feeding the kids, so we'll have a fun-filled weekend of frolic and adventure.

I'll leave you with this little .gif, cautioning everyone to be careful this weekend.

Oh, my.  Y'all have fun this weekend, but be careful  Tip of the hat to Wirecutter for the gif.