Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Weekend Weather

Like many of you, I'm a weather watcher.  It's been my experience that as good as the weather-weenies are at forecasting, they simply can't start to firm up the forecast until about three days out.  There is too much of the butterfly effect, and the weather is one of those things that is almost impossible to predict with any degree of confidence past about four days.

I'm watching the weather for this weekend, because we've planned a rather large outdoor event.    And, I'm watching the weather.  When I want a quick-and-dirty idea, I click on Accuweather.  And, there is the forecast this weekend for Natchitoches, LA.

That doesn't look good for Saturday  There is a chance of a thunderstorm.  But, chances are like probabilities, and further data is needed.  So, I then click over to Weather Underground.  Here's that three-day prognostication.

That gives me a little better idea, and that blue area on the bottom of the map is the chance of rain.  And, if I click on that area of the map, I get an expanded view that looks like this.

That's Saturday, in Natchitoches, LA.  The rain chance is still there, but it never gets over 50%, although it approaches hat magic number.  Is it going to rain on our parade?  Heck, I don't know, but neither do the weather forecasters.  My idea, based on my experience with weather in central Louisiana is that there are probably going to be pop-up showers across the area.  Local events that might rain on one acre and leave the next pasture bone-dry.

I am cautiously optimistic at this time that the weather will cooperate.  All indications ar that Saturday will have a  less-than-half chance of rain, as part of a weak front passing by, and that Sunday will dawn-off clear and cool.

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