The Great Conundrum

So, here is the deal, and we in Louisiana and South east Texas have learned it over the past decade.

If you own a home in a hurricane zone, your storm deductible is set at about 20% of the value of the home.  And, if you don't have flood insurance, nothing is covered if you are house floods.

In the clip below, Varney talks about the economic impacts of the recent hurricane in Florida.  These impacts are on the property owners, and if his figures are correct, many of them will be wiped out.  Property in southwest Florida just got a whole lot cheaper, and I'm not in the market for any of it.

Not Likely, Joe

 Our inept, fumbling president was on TV the other day, saying words to the effect that Hurricane Ian might be the deadliest hurricane to ever hit Florida.  Not likely, Joe.  Weather weenies keep records, and those records are easily available.

The Lake Okeechobee hurricane in 1928 killed over 2500 people.  The Great Labor Day storm in 1935 claimed over 400 folks.  Just to name two.

I am not discounting the devastation that Ian has rained on Florida, and any life lost is too many.  I am highlighting how easy it is to get information on hurricanes.

Some of the talking heads on the left are trying to tell us that hurricanes are getting more intense due to climate change.  And, no, a quick review of the records doesn't show that either.  There have been lots of Cat 4 hurricanes to come ashore, and even if they upgrade Ian to a Category 5 storm, that doesn't prove that climate change had anything to do with it.  Cat 5 storms are statistical outliers. A more valid argument might be made that climate change has lessened the number of named storms.

Again, none of this discussion is meant to diminish the horrific loss that Florida has experienced.  It's not Florida's fault, they just happened to be in the way.  I live in Louisiana, a state known for absorbing hurricanes.  I've seen the damage that strong storms can do, and I've experienced the aftermath.

Don't listen to creepy Joe, or to idiotic Don Lemon. They don't know what the hell they are talking about.

Checking The Weather

 It's hot in central Louisiana, as is proper for the middle of July, and as we do here, I checked the National Hurricane Center for their current activity.  It seems that the Atlantic basin is quiet.

No activity for the next 48 hours.  We'll take it.  We are currently moving into what is historically the height of the hurricane season.

Interesting

 It seems that that strange tropical storm that we're watching is doing it ass-backwards.  It came out of the Pacific, crossed southern Mexico on an eastward track and is continuing northeast.  That's odd.

It is what it is, and we'll keep an eye on it.

Hurricane Season

 Hurricane Season begins each year on June 1, and today we turn our eyes to the trops to see what is going on.  According to the National Hurricane Center

Two storms on the Atlantic map.  That red X, reportedly, came out of the Pacific and across tthe Yucatan.  

Here we go again, right on schedule.

Ida Claims More Victims

 Hurricane Ida, whether she is listed today as post-tropical, or a depression, is wreaking havoc in the Northeast, as Fox News reports:

Eight people were confirmed dead in New York City, including a 2-year-old boy, a 48-year-old female and a 50-year-old man who were all found inside a home in the Jamaica neighborhood of Queens as a result of the severe weather. In New Jersey, a 70-year-old man was reported dead and a 19-year-old man was found dead in Maryland.

I'm sure that Disaster Declarations will soon follow.  We'll add those people to the prayer list tonight at services. 

Carbon Monoxide is a SILENT KILLER

Generators are life-saving devices under conditions where the grid goes down,  Either hurricane or ice storm

But, generators accounted for over half the deaths associated with Hurricane Laura last year.  

Please, people, twenty (20) feet from the house, not under cover.  Not in your garage or patio, certainly not in the living room.  

Doing Fine

 I'm out in the shop, cleaning brass.  The tumbler is rattling in the background, and I thought I'd pull up the weather page to see what's happening.  Locally, we're under a misting rain, with winds out of the  NW at 10, gusting to 20.  Not a big deal.

That's the radar image, and we're fine.  This is still a huge storm, and lots of people are hurting, but we are counting our blessings.  Grandson Quinton is an E-4  in the Guard, and he was activated on Saturday.  He's somewhere in that mess we haven't heard from him since last night.  His unit hunkered down in a school-house and they will be doing relief work, helping evacuees and distributing food and water until the local authorities can stand up their own efforts.  From all reports, they have no cell service, but I'm sure that his leadership is taking care of him.

Hurricane Ida near category 5 strength

I don't know if it is a Cat 5 yet, and it wobbled a bit, inching the track closer to the New Orleans metro area.  That's bad news for NOLA, but better news for PawPaw.  I do't wish this on anyone, but I don't wish it om me either.  I'll take the good news when I can get it.

I'll keep checking he updates all day long.

Prepping Saturday

 The club shot this morning, and we finished up about 2:00.  Then I ran to the grocers to pick up some groceries for the next couple of days.  Hurricane Ida comes in tomorrow afternoon, and we're okay.

All indications are that we are going to be on the west side of the storm, and that is the best place to be.  Of course, they all wobble just before landfall, so we still have to be aware, but I think my little acre is in pretty good shape.  We may be incognito for a day or so, but in no peril.

I'll be checking the track and the warning cone until it hits, but I really don't expect any surprises.

The Unfolding Storm

 Waking this morning, drinking coffee, our eyes are focused on two storms, one in the Afghan capitol and one soon to enter the Gulf.  While the storm in Afghanistan is metaphorical, the one in the Gulf is physical.

We all know by now that yesterday was the deadliest day for American forces in a decade.  I mourn the loss, but probably the greatest revelation from yesterdays new is that US officials have given a list of Americans and Afghan allies to the Taliban.  I am astounded.  This seems like treason.  The idea makes me numb with shock.

Turning to the tropical system, it looks like Tropical Storm Ida will run into the western edge of Cuba, then enter the Gulf later today.  There will be wobbles, but it looks like Ida will hit the Louisiana coast sometime late Sunday as a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane.  Right now, the wobbles seem to be trending to the east, but it is way to early to know for certain.  I've seen these things wobble significantly in the last hours before landfall.

According to KFLY Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier:

National Hurricane Center now calling for a 115 mph major hurricane to make landfall across southeastern or south-central Louisiana by Sunday night or Monday morning, depending on how far west Ida gets. A southeast Louisiana landfall would happen quicker, while a Vermilion Bay landfall would be delayed about 6-8 hours. Subtle differences of 30-40 miles will make a difference for Acadiana at this point. Eastern-most model solutions would put Acadiana in a better spot versus the further west Vermilion Bay solutions, which would put Acadiana more in the crosshairs. Unfortunately, these minor differences are settled by slight angle changes in track or wobbles, which cannot be determined until the storm is very close to landfall.

It's time to check the oil in the generator.  I think I have sufficient fuel.  All the gas cans are full, and I have several full bottles of butane.

Here We Go

 The National Hurricane Center is tracking what they now call Tropical Disturbance Nine.  I believe that the  next name on the list is Ida.

It will be a few more days before we know much about this storm, but it bears watching.  This one has my acre firmly in the cone.  We'll see.

Hurricane (or Tropical Storm) Henri

All my friends in New England need to hunker down.  The weather is about to get real up there, and if you've never been through a hurricane or tropical storm, it's a whole new experience.  Have a plan, hunker down, and know that help might not be there for three days.

Saturday Update

 Great club shoot this morning.  We were just practicing, but we had three (3) new shooters, so we spent a lot of time with safety, and teaching them how to shoot a single action revolver.

After the shoot, I took Belle to lunch, and we had a nice lunch at a little Cajun cafe near the house.  Quite pleasant.

Checking on the Covid numbers at the local hospital, we find:

That is better than yesterday.  It ain't good yet, but it is better.

Looking at the tropics, we see that Fred had downgraded and shifted significantly to the west.  

And, now I see something called Grace, tracking in about the same path as Fred.  The tropics are heating up.

This may be a long hurricane season.

Daily Update

 We are watching the tropics this morning.  That disturbance down in the ocean has ginned up into a tropical storm, named Fred.   It is still early to assess its track but while many models are predicting it will leave us alone, one outlier puts it right across my acre.

Still, most models predict it will be a bigger problem for Florida than for Louisiana.  Below, is NOAA's warning cones

So, we will be keeping a weather eye on this thing, and checking our own prep plan.

Turning our eye to the daily Covid numbers, we find that our local hospital is up one since yesterday.

That's sobering news, but it appears that the local numbers have ben hovering around the 60 count since the weekend.  Hopefully that means we've entered a plateau.

Watching The Tropics

 The National Hurricane Center is watching something they're calling Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.  They are giving it a high chance of ginning up to something bigger.

We'll keep a weather eye on this thing.  We are coming up on the most active part of the hurricane season.  From now until the first weeks of October, we'll be keeping an eye on the tropics.

Still Watching Elsa

 The cone is starting to firm up for Hurricane Elsa, which is expected to hi the southern tip of Florida late Monday or early Tuesday as a strong tropical storm.  People who have never been in the path of a tropical storm don't realize how huge these things are.  A typical storm might have tropical-storm-force winds 50 miles from the center of the storm.  A simple calculation gives the area affected, which can be over 7800 square miles, and it's moving constantly.

We will continue to keep a weather eye on this thing.

Watching Elsa

 Hurricane Elsa is gaining strength, and we're watching her.  She is the fifth named strom of this season, and the first to get much attention.

That's the five-day tropical wind outlook and it bears watching closely.  This thing will change over time, and by Sunday afternoon we should have a better idea of who might be affected.

Tracking Zeta

I'd like to cancel my subscription to the Hurricane of the Month Club. 

It looks like this one is going to miss my acre.  The plots are starting to firm up, but it seems to he heading for the New Orleans/Baton Rouge corridor.

We'll know more in the next couple of days, but it's expected to make landfall on Wednesday.

Zeta?

 It looks like we have a new storm swirling inthe Fulf.  Tropical storm Zeta.  According to the National Hurricane Center.

Lovely, just friggin' lovely.