Gustav Update

It's still about 750 miles from the Louisiana coast, give or take, and at this time is a Cat 3 hurricane. It's expected to ravage western Cuba then slide into the Gulf of Mexico.

The northwest track that will take place into Sunday could break down some on Sunday night and Monday. A large high moves from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast states during this time ridging all the way south to the southeastern U.S. The strength and exact positioning of this high, along with how quickly it moves east, will be the deciding factor of how soon Gustav comes ashore and where. This high could at least slow the forward progress of Gustav and may even deflect it slightly to a more westerly course. So all interests along the Gulf Coast need to keep a close watch on the future progress of this impending dangerous hurricane. This is especially true from the extreme western Florida Panhandle to the southeastern Texas coast.

They're not sure where it's coming ashore, but all indications are that Louisiana is in the middle of the target area.

The Accuweather extended track looks something like this:



Of course, with Louisiana anywhere in the target area, the leadership gets all hysterical over New Orleans. From the tracks I've seen, the lower Atchafalaya delta is expected to take a bigger hit than New Orleans. Of course, the Cajuns in those swamps are perfectly knowledgeable about hurricanes and are able to take care of themselves.

I'll start cleaning up the backyard this afternoon or tomorrow, getting everything battened down for a blow. From the map above, it's still supposed to be a Cat 1 hurricane when it gets to central Louisiana. Tuesday and Wednesday are liable to get really damned interesting around here.