:Time remains for these problems to be resolved, but not much. "If things aren't resolved in three weeks, we've got some serious, serious problems," said Timothy Jost, a law professor and health care reform expert at Washington & Lee University in Lexington, Va., and an Obamacare supporter. "I don't think we're anywhere close to there yet, but if the whole thing collapses, it'll be another generation before we get this problem fixed."Another generation, huh? It seems that's the problem now. Folks that can't access the marketplace, or don't want to access the marketplace, especially one that's twitchy and crashes for no apparent reason.
Under these circumstances, the lion's share of the people who do whatever is necessary to sign up through HealthCare.gov are likely to be the sickest and most expensive to cover because they have the greatest need, Laszewski said. That would make the pool of people covered very costly, causing health insurers to lose money and likely rethink whether they want to participate in the exchanges, he said. "The fundamental threat to Obamacare is we don't get enough healthy people in the pool to keep the rates reasonable, and they are in grave danger of that problem," he said.That's the problem in a nutshell. If you don't have lots of young, healthy people signing up, they'll simply pay the penalty, which will probably be less expensive than the insurance.
If these problems persist longer -- weeks, months, a whole year -- the entire Obamacare project falls apart, Laszewski said: "It's a holy shit moment."This whole project seems to be unsustainable from an actuarial standpoint, which is why it is doomed to fail. Perhaps our best bet is simply to stand back and document the demise of this signature plan.